The nut will likely loosen fairly easily. Remove it and the setscrew completely. Attack the built up crud on the hub and the threads with a small wire brush and some cleaner. I replaced the belt on my M last winter, and it had been nearly 40 years since it was moved, also! I had pretty good luck cleaning mine with a can of spray Gum-Out, a small brass-bristle brush about 1/2" wide, and some PB Blaster penetrating oil. Mine had the usual build-up of crud on the threads, and had accumulated a tremendous amount of fine dust into the threads. This dust had effectively locked the hub of the pulley in place so tightly that the setscrew and nut would not have been needed! Use some caution when attacking the hub with a punch to turn it. Don't lose patience, or you will hit it too hard, crack it, and then be in for a much larger adventure. Turn the setscrew hole to the top, flood the inside of the hub with the solvent of your choice, then work the hub back and forth as you are able to. It may need to soak all night before you can move it. Once it starts moving, keep working it both ways until it becomes free enough to turn with your hands. Take a good look at that belt when you start this project. If it's old, hard, cracked, or visibly worn, you may want to cut it off and make the job of loosening the hub easier. If you end up replacing the belt, you probably won't have to do all this for another 30 years or more.
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