falling old equipment values

1) Huge food processing corporations. Birdseye-McCain's-Campbells-Paramalt-Geen giant and others.

2) Corporate Farms large enough to keep small farm prices low, they may not even harvest their own crops if it's cheeper to buy from the small farmer.

3) Huge Commercial Farms that pool resources and buy the largest equipment available plow, cultivate and harvest huge acreage in less time =less costs.

4) The Wallmarts of the farming industry will always try to make their bottom line better at any cost weather it's grain, corn, beef, pork or chicken.

Just think how little the farmer gets for a pound of potatoes (maybe 2c ?) how much a lb. did you pay for your last bag of chips. ($2.00 a lb.?)

When they get this GMO food settled and everyone excepts it, again the big corporations who have pattons on the seed will have control of all agra. food supply. In the future they will make the majority of the seed sold. Eventually will it be engineered not to reproduce it's self? If so back to the man or whom ever owns the pattons. If someone saves their seeds that reproduces it's self, will possibly have GMO DNA and will not be legally able to sell it.

As far as the economy goes, I have my own personal indicator. Since the late 80's I have been an adjunct instructor (evenings and part- time) at a couple of community colleges. I teach Technical Writing. What I have seen is this: when the economy is declining or bad, and businesses are laying off, people go back to college or take classes for a variety of reasons ( they now have time to do it, employee assistance programs, state educational programs, etc.) So during slow economic times, enrollment is up and the number of classes I teach is up. When the economy gets better, enrollment is down because people are working. As of April, 2004, summer and fall enrollments for Technical Writing are way down. As I said, this has been an ongoing indicator since the late 80's and what it tells me is that things are on the "up" right now.

Now it sells for about 3.00 and the yields here in michigan (SAginaw valley) average 100 per acre.

no food shortage in sight. Not with everybody eating tofu and bean sprouts.

But of course, Atkins has changed that trend.

heck, the reason I'm overwieght is that I ate wheat fresh from the combine as a kid, when the sandwiches on Moms homemade bread with her homemade strawberry jam didn't make it to the field on time.

Of course, I'm psychologically damaged cause I had to work as a kid, and got a 5 prong pitchfork for my 8th birthday.....how many other people can remember their 8th birthday present? hmmmm

maybe thats why I have a 1963 Oliver 550 sitting on my property.

change isn't always good, but the only thing that isnt changing is the rate of change...it is getting faster and faster.

? dont need it, will cost $3-5k to knock down with excavator.

My dad's MF 50 is worth $1000.oo more now than he paid for it new in 1958....inflation not accounted for.

He bought a AC190XT in 1976 for 7000.00....sold it for 7500.00 in 1992.

Sold all of his farm implements for at least as much as he paid for each piece,,,again, not including inflation.

Bought an older Gleaner for $2000.00 om 1979, with a froze up motor. lots of wd40 and a sharp smack with a rubber mallet freed the motor, and sold it 10 years later for $7000.00, with a newer floating soybean cutting bar.

never can tell....

I looked at those newer, cute tractors....they package a lot of horsepower and options on those puppies. Unfortunately, none are made in the US. Korean (Branson models) McCormick (italian), Kubota (Nihon)...etc.etc.etc.

Heck, a toyota car or truck has more American content than most all american vehicles.

Times are changing...we buy old iron cause we like to tinker, and we don't like change.

Some of the well used planters, older disks, field cultivators, and roller assemblies are not selling for great prices... but then THEY never did.

Used Tractors are selling GREAT! I didn't sell the IH-1066 because I believe that I can fix it up {clean it up} and sell it for about $9000+.

I remember not too many years ago reading a report that 14% of the National Economy was a direct result of Agriculture! That included all sorts of things from trucking, fuel, chemicals, fertilizers, seed, equipment... and all the labor and manufacturing jobs to produce all of those things. There are many businesses and jobs that rely on the farming and agricultural production industry!

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OK, I did some searching and found these facts for you to consider...

{quoted from this website: >Link

United>Link States agriculture accounts for nearly 18 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over 20 million jobs. Production agriculture produces 2 percent of the GDP and 2.5 million jobs. The industries supplying inputs to agriculture contribute about 2 percent of the GDP and another 2 million jobs. The remaining 14 percent of the GDP and more than 15 million jobs are generated by transportation, storage , processing, manufacturing, and distribution industries. These contribute to the transformation of raw agricultural products into consumer food, fiber, industrial goods, and the service industries which provide goods and services to these industries. In regions where agriculture is a dominant industry, the total economic activity stemming from agriculture may be considerably larger (Anderson, Kim et al.. 1996).

My argument is not the farm gate numbers... it is the impact on the GNP and the National Economy. If you believe that the loss of 1% to 2% of the GNP {actual farm gate sales} will not immediately affect at least 10% to 15% of the cummulative GNP, then you are wrong! It would be the equivelant of pulling the rug out from under our economy!

Yes, there is more efficiency in ALL farming operations now days. But being a minor player is not how knowledgable politicians view the agricultural industry. We may be less than 1.5% of the general population. And yes, we only have a minor physical vote for electing politicians... but what happens to the politicians when the masses start screaming about the high price of food and the lack of availability when that 1.5% is gone? {just look at the petroleum industry and gas prices}

That "threat" {inflation/deficeit-supply} to the consumer is a very powerful influence to any politician with foresight!

Wheat has never been noted as an oil seed crop. Making alcohol, maybe. Think Bio-diesel, think Corn. Think especially Canola.

Convert every square inch of U.S. cultivated land in production today with Canola, you'd have almost enough bio-diesel to replace our current gasoline & diesel needs.

So it's not practical as a 100% replacement, but it could play a big role in the future. Move cars to high efficiency things like Prius w/50mpg to stretch gasoline, grow Canola and such to augment diesel supplies they can help both hold down prices & stretch supplies.

Ryan

K-Mo

A few weeks ago, saw a Super M sell for $3000. Don't know where they aren't worth much anymore, but I'd like to know so I can take a trailer there and load it up . . . .

We 2% couldn't feed the other 98% without lots of relatively cheap oil.

Fuel for equipment, the energy required to produce the equipment itself from raw materials, fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, transportation, processing, packaging, it's all very oil-intensive all the way down the chain.

Now it'll probably be some time yet before oil runs so short it interferes with food production, there's a lot of recreational oil useage going on in the US, but there better be a replacement fuel in place when it does.Actually this dynamic may constrain the developing nations with lots of people to feed, like china/india/etc., leading to tensions and war before it leads to food shortages in the US. Biodiesel is a recycling technology, it's not a fuel source. When you look at the whole chain of energy inputs biodiesel is a net energy loser, with the possible exception of hemp seed. But that's a whole other can of worms, and still not enough to make a dent in the oil market, no matter how many acres are in programs. Gotta think in net terms.

There's ground that's good given enough energy inputs, and then there's good ground. There's a lot more of the former than the latter.

Could be we'll come up with something to replace oil before it becomes an issue, maybe not. There's a lot of debate going on over whether oil production is reaching a peak, Matt Simmons is a Bush administration energy secretary who says we'll have to start dealing with continually declining energy supplies from right around here on out, it all depends on who you believe about reserves, mostly whether or not you believe the Arabs.

What we do know is the only nations whose oil production isn't in decline are hostile to one degree or another, SA, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Indonesia, that's about it. US has been in decline for decades, north sea (britain) is now in decline, Russia is at maximum.

As long as we have enough energy, food production isn't going to be a problem.

I do agree it's a crying shame the small farms are dying out a bit more with each passing decade, the "economies of scale" may not work out as well as circumstances change, and the US may regret the loss of all those small farmers who know their ground and how to get the most from it with minimal inputs.

Food shartages though? I dunno. Seems like as long as there's sufficient seed stocks it'd take something pretty catastrophic, gardening isn't entirely a lost art, even among the suburban yuppies, and the rest would learn quick if their kids were hungry enough.

I'll take 15 of those solid running H's for $800 each, if you'll deliver.