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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

tractor prices the economy for this year

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havvey

03-15-2005 06:39:17




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whats the prediction for this year guys what will antique prices do? seems to be slacking of in my area. we expect high energy prices to slow things down




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NEsota

03-16-2005 08:26:52




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
havvey, When this administration took over we had had budget surpluses, i.e. our government had been taking in more than it was spending. There were then tax cuts and spending was increased to the point that for several years our government has spent more than it has taken in, that creates deficit. A household that spends more than it takes in will in time, most likely will get into trouble, so will a nation. With any explosion or implosion it is probably imposable to know exactly where or when something is going to come apart and where the pieces will land. It is reasonable to predict that when you put too much in or take too much out, things happen. It is like a fuel-air mixture the engine will run when it is off a little but if it gets off enough it means trouble.

Volcker is the most respected financial person that I know of who has made such a dire prediction and he was not very specific. We know that the world has become much smaller and more interdependent. We in the U.S. have been spending natural resources too fast and living high for a long time. The competition will get tougher for us and we need to make better choices about what really matters.

GDP, Gross Domestic Product is the value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. per year. In 1978 the U.S. was owed money equal to 9% of GDP. Now the U.S. owes the rest of the world 27% of GDP. Never has a country of our size been so indebted

Disclaimer: I have never had a course in economics and was on academic probation most of my time at Peru State.

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havvey

03-16-2005 11:51:37




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to NEsota, 03-16-2005 08:26:52  
ok a little better did you ever get off acidemic probation?



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NEsota

03-16-2005 19:25:15




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-16-2005 11:51:37  
havvey...Yes, but I had to raise my GPA to a "C" first. With spell check it would be easier to do today.



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NEsota

03-15-2005 22:16:23




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
About a year ago our V.P. said; "Deficits don't matter". The Administration has approched taxing and spending like they do not. I disagree. Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve and not prone to make exaggerated statements maybe six months ago said; "I think we are within five years of an economic disaster". Warren Buffet, the investor I most respect, has been letting money pile up because he doesn't think this is a good time to be buying stock or commodites.

I understand that the U.S. has gone from having net foreign assets equal to 9% GDP in 1978 to net liabilities equaling 27% now and there is no historical precedent for such a large economy being so heavely in debt to the rest of the world.

Back to tractor prices, my thinking is that before the economic bubble breaks, there will be a lot of inflation, if so then it's probablly better to own something other than money. Personally I would not bet everything on antique tractors but what do I know? The things mentioned above are things I would consider in making a prediction but would most likely not make the top ten things to be considered by folks smarter then me.

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havvey

03-16-2005 05:28:32




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to NEsota, 03-15-2005 22:16:23  
i got about 10% of that so we have hi inflation and a lot of debt could you translate the rest in to a simpler explanation?



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buickanddeere

03-15-2005 14:16:33




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
The original collectors from the 1980"s & 90"s are dying of old age. More collectors are leaving the hobby than getting into collecting tractors. The % of population who had anything to do with farming and tractors has dropped in the past three generations. The 35 to 65 year old guys are now purchasing trucks and cars to restore from the era when they were teenagers.



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Jonboy

03-15-2005 12:36:54




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
Well, some of the more valueable tractors have fallen in price. Farmall 400's and 450's with widefronts were as high as $10,000 just a couple three years ago, now they run $3,500-$4,000. Thats a huge difference in price. Others aren't worth as much either, but some models are gaining value such as the 4020 Deeres and the oliver 990 with the 3cyl GM are holding their value pretty well as even one thats all beat up and unrestored runs about $9,500.

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JD 5020 guy

03-15-2005 10:22:44




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
Thats good. Maybe then I could afford some of them.



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HAVVEY

03-15-2005 13:46:52




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to JD 5020 guy, 03-15-2005 10:22:44  
SO JONBOY YOU ARE SAYING THAT MABY THERE IS SOME NEW FADS OR TRENDS SHAPING UP. THAT SEEMS LOGICAL.



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Blues boy

03-15-2005 08:50:32




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to havvey, 03-15-2005 06:39:17  
There's a severe financial storm coming.Do your own due diligence.



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Dave H (MI)

03-15-2005 14:34:07




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to Blues boy, 03-15-2005 08:50:32  
I think statements like that are inflammatory and have a negative effect. If you have knowledge of something or reasons to back up your conclusion then state them. Otherwise you should not make such statements. What exactly is your "financial storm" and what makes you think it is coming?



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BillB

03-16-2005 09:56:26




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to Dave H (MI), 03-15-2005 14:34:07  
Isn't it plain that this administration wants to bring the country to the brink of economic collapse simply to end the social programs it abhors? (That is the Social Security and Medicare we all paid for.)



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buickanddeere

03-15-2005 20:58:20




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to Dave H (MI), 03-15-2005 14:34:07  
Extremely high personal debt by a majority of the North American population. It's been to finance all the luxury goodies. As well as loans covering education, medical bills or business expansion. An increase of 2 or 3 % in interest rates would bankrupt literally millions of people. No price or rate stays high or low very long.



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HAVVEY

03-15-2005 10:08:54




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 Re: tractor prices the economy for this year in reply to Blues boy, 03-15-2005 08:50:32  
MY THOUGHTS EXACTLY BEEN SAYING IT FOR A WHILE!



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