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O/T I hate to tell y'all this....

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Logan in S.E. T

09-19-2005 23:12:40

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....but if that next storm, Rita, continues as expected, gas and diesel are going to go up again in price. There are more refineries along the upper Texas coast and at the least we will have to shutdown while the storm passes. Yes I said we. I work for a major oil company in Pt. Arthur, Texas making gasoline and diesel. Several plants here and all the way over to and a little ways past Houston. Safety dictates that we shutdown and secure units. Not anything anybody can do, except pray....

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Logan in S.E. Texas

09-20-2005 16:58:32

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

JR, nitro, I live in Kountze, close to the LL ballpark, I also just paid $2.36 for reg. unleaded at Wal-Mart in Pt. Arthur @ 5:30pm, that is using the shopping card for an additional .03 off. The gas station was almost in complete gridlock from the crowd. We may miss taking a direct hit here, but it will surely cause the refineries over around Houston to shutdown, will just have to wait and see. Galveston is already under a mandatory evacuation order.

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JR in TX

09-21-2005 07:12:50

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-20-2005 16:58:32

Logan, nitro, I guess we are almost neighbors. I'm off 69 at Wheeler Rd. A little over a mile down Wheeler on Deer Park...behind all the new development. I was there before Dennis Williams started all his mega building development!! Now it looks like I'm gonna be in the middle of town. Oh well, we'll get the kids out of school and move out so far that we have to have sunshine pumped in!!

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txgrn

09-20-2005 17:17:40

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-20-2005 16:58:32

Old selfish me online again. Hopefully we will get this one and we can get some relief from our drought up heah in N. Tx. This time of year hurricanes are our only resolve.

Sorry you guys down there have to take a pounding for our benefit but if it helps..... .....thanks. (Born and raised in Pasadena but no more gulf coast for me.....course Pasadena isn't really the gulf coast..... .close enough....er ah too close....at least I had enough sense to leave Biloxi when I got out of the service in '68.

Mark

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Logan in S.E. Texas

09-20-2005 17:29:24

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to txgrn, 09-20-2005 17:17:40

Hey Mark, we are terribly dry down here in se tx too. 12 inches of rain wouldn't hurt us a bit and might allow county officals to lift the burn ban, ha ha. I have brother living in Gladewater, and wifes brother lives in Canton, pretty country up there.

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txgrn

09-20-2005 17:53:25

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-20-2005 17:29:24

We have had the ban for as long as I can remember.

Agree on the pretty scenery. Canton is really nice as it has the rolling hills, some sandy loam and lots of hardwoods. I'm in the rolling plains too, but mostly prarie with the wood pretty much restricted to bordering the creeks.

One of the things that helped me leave the coast was just that....rolling hills. I just got tired of spring floods and everything being flat. I live on top of a hill here and if it floods, Noah had better get his boat out again. Grin.

Mark

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JR in TX

09-20-2005 06:30:32

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Logan, Where do you live? I live in Lumberton, work in Beaumont. James

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nitro

09-20-2005 07:41:32

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to JR in TX, 09-20-2005 06:30:32

JR in Texas, I live in kountze,Tx I paid 2.36 for gas yesterday at P.A Walmart. But it will be goin up im shure.

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Coldiron

09-20-2005 06:22:52

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Why does that affect the prices up here in the Pacific Northwest? Everyone elses fuel is going down this week and ours is staying up. The wife loves it though, cause I stay home more and get the chores done. LOL

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wayne2

09-21-2005 06:45:36

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Coldiron, 09-20-2005 06:22:52

Cold iron, Say you the fellow frol Priest???

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Matt from CT

09-20-2005 08:05:16

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Coldiron, 09-20-2005 06:22:52

The simple answer:

Because if gas was cheaper in one area, some entrepeneur would go up with a trailer and truck it to where the can sell it for more.

Yes, real world is a bit more complicated with companies seeing what they can charge (usually there's it's 5-10 cent more in CT for me to get gas than MA; recently it's been upto 20 cents LESS...hmmmm).

But outside of the normal 20 cent "play around" with prices, and differences with gas taxes, a shortage in one region of the U.S. is a shortage everywhere...you truck the gas to whose willing to pay the most for it.

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Mike Van

09-20-2005 12:28:51

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Matt from CT, 09-20-2005 08:05:16

And, if thats not enough, a moose took a dump right near the Alaskan pipeline, they have to shut it down till FEMA gets up there to clean all the toxins up. Expect another .25 gal price hike for that!

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Coldiron

09-20-2005 18:10:10

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Mike Van , 09-20-2005 12:28:51

Like your sense of humor in the middle of all the fast drain on the savings account. LOL

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BobMo

09-20-2005 06:00:03

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Logan is right of course, however if there happens to be no or little damage to those facilities the spike will be short lived. Many of you have your facts way out of wack. Jay is near correct. What some people don't understand is that many of the rigs in the gulf are natural gas rigs. Probably half or more. Also the big oil companies aren't gouging you, they are taking advantage of opportunities the same as you will if given the chance.
In the end the tree huggers and speculators are more the cause than the large oil companies. They are also to blame for much of the flooding in N.O. Their lawsuits have blocked the building of additional refineries i.e. also the repair and upgrade of many of the levies in the N.O. area.
The speculators are the ones who feed the rumors that increase the prices of any product whether it's gasoline, crude, coffee or sugar. If they have purchased futures in these products at a certain amount it must go up for them to make money hence the rumors of shortages or outages which some of you are repeating. The limited refining capacity in this country is real. Natural gas may be short until the repairs of facilities in the gulf area are complete. If you want your gas bill to be less for now drive less. Good luck.

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jfp

09-20-2005 04:09:44

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Yes it will go up and sorry for us. Katrina damaged about 140 oil platforms in the Gulf, some were knocked under water. Rita is a cat 3 this morning and packing 16 inches of rain. For the Texas coast water is the bigger damage flooding so much area; that is as long as it stays a cat 3 storm . Some one on here said oil companies being greedy would balance out in the end and it is working; let free enterprize ring.

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Jay (ND)

09-20-2005 05:33:53

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to jfp, 09-20-2005 04:09:44

Wow - that's way differnt information than I've seen. First off, Rita is still a tropical storm, but is expected to be a category 3 by Thursday. And I'm not 100% positive about this, but of the 641 rigs shut down for Katrina, 20 received damage, some knocked off their moorings, but only one was sunk. The one that was sunk was a 1500 bpd crude unit. Small potatoes.

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jfp

09-20-2005 06:05:20

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Jay (ND), 09-20-2005 05:33:53

Jay I hope you take this message as positive. Fla. Key West has evacuated. They usually don't do that just for a tropical storm. My local news reports may be wrong as you can not find any news that reports the whole truth and nothing but the truth. As for the oil platforms damaged; neither one of us can be sure. We have so many refineries in the Houston area and can not afford to lose them right now in a moment of crisis on top of crisis. One news report says cat 2 and another says cat 3 with a danger of becoming a cat 4. So we probably won't know the actual truth until about 8 hrs before it hits. Galveston is already leaving and that is probably the elderly or handicapped. They are not taking any chances.

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Matt from CT

09-20-2005 08:17:27

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to jfp , 09-20-2005 06:05:20

As of 1000 hrs EDT this morning, the National Weather Service odds for Rita in three days:

10% chance Tropical Storm
25% chance Cat 1
15% chance Cat 2
25% chance Cat 3
25% chance Cat 4 or 5

Ok, so we're at the coin-flip point...but we've got a 50% of it being nothing...or 50% of it being very significant come Friday.

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Kevin (FL)

09-20-2005 06:53:37

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to jfp , 09-20-2005 06:05:20

As of 0700 hrs (central time), Rita remains a tropical storm with max winds at 60 knots and gusts higher. This is right under a CAT 1 hurricane so Rita will likely become a CAT 1 as she moves into the Gulf and once over the warm waters, she is likely to strengthen. The higher catergory ratings may be the predicted CAT level at landfall in Texas or Louisiana, hence the confusion about its current strength.

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Jay (ND)

09-20-2005 06:16:52

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to jfp , 09-20-2005 06:05:20

Yea, I saw that they were evacuating Key West - seems it has a problem like NO - much of it below sea level. On top of that, they are expecting Rita to hit during high tide, making the storm surge higher yet.

PS - the after hours trading on gasoline is down almost 10cents as I type this, almost the same as what it was up yesterday prior to the NYMEX opening.

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john in la

09-20-2005 03:23:19

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Well your prediction is a little late since the wholesale price of gas went up .14 at midnight.
If the market does not settle down today you will see a price increase at the pump real soon.

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midwest redneck

09-20-2005 02:01:47

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Logan in S.E. Texas, 09-19-2005 23:12:40

Well, maybe you can tell us when the refineries are up and running again, becasue we dont like getting ripped off by these folks. When hurricanes used to hit just a few years ago I dont remember the price going up a $1/gallon for a month. Please keep us informed

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Texas Proud

09-20-2005 16:57:29

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to midwest redneck, 09-20-2005 02:01:47

Yeah, let us have our oil expert from the major oil producing state of North Dakota tell how Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, etc. are going to react. I'm sure 1500 BOPD is a major percentage of North Dakota's oil production, and the above majors would be wide open to the "expert's" suggestions on how to run their business.
After all, they only stand to lose BILLIONS of dollars in investment and infrastructure, not to mention lost production.

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Jay (ND)

09-20-2005 17:05:42

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Texas Proud, 09-20-2005 16:57:29

You sir, are an idiot - and I sign my name same as always.

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Jay (ND)

09-20-2005 18:08:55

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to Jay (ND), 09-20-2005 17:05:42

Sorry - that was uncalled for. It just irritates me when people make assumptions or twist things.

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Mark - IN.

09-20-2005 03:48:46

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Re: O/T I hate to tell y'all this.... in reply to midwest redneck, 09-20-2005 02:01:47

I still can't concieve a reason for the predicted 70% rise in natural gas for this coming season/winter. Heard someone on the news say was because of the hurricane. I watched them dig hundreds of miles to lay a huge natural gas pipeline into Illinois that came down from Canada, and as a matter of fact have down telephone repairs at the huge storage facility, which then feeds it back out to... I'm just not seeing the tie between natural gas and oil refineries down on the gulf coast. I understand that natural gas has to be flushed and pumped out from often miles of rock and soil, but don't see where the gulf coast fits in, other than an excuse. Call me stupid.

Remember a couple of years ago when natural gas took a huge spike? The winter before that was mild, wasn't nearly as much used as expected, and gobs left on hand. Going into the following heating season, before even got to it, the price spiked big time. The producers said was because used so little the year prior, didn't restock, so had to go up - all prior to the actual heating season even arriving. So, what happened to the natural gas supply that was left over from the year before? It was sold to China to build up their reserves, and we paid the price.

Doesn't it make you wish you owned the steakhouse where some bigshot preferred to have his porterhouse? Just before he comes in for his daily visit, shoot the price up to $1,000 an ounce - "Take it or leave it bigshot, I'll supply if you demand. Oh, caviar... $7,000 per ounce.".

Mark

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