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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down

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Cant Understand

03-20-2008 08:47:12




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Despite what some say people are actually driving less.Refineries are now only running at 83% capacity.Crude dipped under $100 per barrel this morning.

Predictions are that fuel prices wont go down any because of the weakening dollar and the fact that more prime rate interest cuts are expected.

So it looks like the supply and demand system is broken?It looks like Wall Street and the Fed pretty much control things.

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Scott in SF

03-20-2008 16:41:58




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
That 83% is of 100% of maximum capacity. Right now everyone (the refiners) has units in turn around mode. Turn around means routine maintenance and rebuilding. 15% or so in turnaround this time of year is normal. Almost everyone has unit shutdows to allow for expansion projects. The refiners are gearing up for the summer demand. This summer everyone will be at 100% plus capicity. We old tractor guys know that anything operating at full throttle tends to break. So it is with a oil refinery. I would suggest everyone expect and prepare for record consumption and prices. If you have the money it may be time to pass on that clean 4020, the 986 or the G1000 at the auction and buy some Mobil Exxon or Chevron stock, or one of the others.

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rrlund

03-20-2008 13:25:59




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
Wish somebody had told the oil man. I got home from an auction today,he'd been here. $3.84 for heating oil.



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Kelly C

03-20-2008 12:52:12




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
There is one good thing happening because of the fuel prices.
It seems to be spuring inovation into new sources of fuel and fuel conserving vehicles.
Seems I am reading about a new process or a new discovery every few days or so.

truth be told we would not be seeing this increase in effort at $2 gas. As it gets closer to $4+ gal The more it gets spurred and the incentive for creativity increases.
At least I hope so. It is the only thing that has a chance of making $4 gas bearable.

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Tradititonal Farmer

03-20-2008 10:28:45




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
The price of oil to Americans has risen because our US Dollar has dropped in value and it takes more dollars to buy the oil.We have demanded the gov't 'give' us a wide variety of things that we never paid for and personal debt is at an all time high.The Fed is printing money which makes all existing money worth less.We need to start living within our means as individuals and as a country before we are forced to by a collasped economy

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hay

03-20-2008 10:42:36




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Tradititonal Farmer, 03-20-2008 10:28:45  
your right, traditional farmer. if american economy collapses, it could be real bad. like what happened to some south american countries in the 1990's where there money was devalued a "0". so in effect $100 becomes $10. that's when we will see some real problems.



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coloken

03-20-2008 09:31:22




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 Re: OT/Oil and ice tea in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
Yes, and ice tea yesterday was $1.99 per glass in Village Inn. Its not just the oil price. Tell me about the US dollar.. I am on fixed income.



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hay

03-20-2008 10:25:08




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 Re: OT/Oil and ice tea in reply to coloken, 03-20-2008 09:31:22  
i"m also on fixed income, but it"s the outgo that worries me.



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Mike M

03-20-2008 09:40:19




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 Re: OT/Oil and ice tea in reply to coloken, 03-20-2008 09:31:22  
I wish my income was at least fixed ! My W2's have been going down for about 7 years now ! Things are not looking good.



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Mike M

03-20-2008 09:30:01




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
Anyone remember back when Johnny Carson joked about a toilet paper shortage ? Well the next day there was because everyone went out and bought some.

Same with a recession the more they talk about it the quicker it will come.



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Kelly C

03-20-2008 11:23:20




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to dhermesc, 03-20-2008 10:56:07  
"Meanwhile with the cheaper dollar exports are at an all time high."

I am still trying to figure out how this is a bad thing. Here in Minnesota our exports are about 15 to 20% higher.
In a article I read they said it hasent meant more labor yet but I cant belive if that demand continues it wouldnt equal more jobs.

If we didnt import so much oil. I bet a low dollar would be a good thing in the long run for us.

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dhermesc

03-20-2008 14:11:36




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Kelly C, 03-20-2008 11:23:20  
"If we didnt import so much oil. I bet a low dollar would be a good thing in the long run for us."

If they'd take a three prong approach, Tar Sands, ethanol and Anwar we'd cut our fuel imports down to nothing. Think of all that CASH staying inside the US instead of going to the oil producing nations (can we really say any of them are our friends).

China (and other Asian countries) keeps their currency artificially cheap and has it "pegged" to the dollar. The falling dollar has helped their exports too.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/14781/setser.html

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Jack a

03-21-2008 03:58:54




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to dhermesc, 03-20-2008 14:11:36  
It's still cheaper to import than to drill for our own oil here and if and when we do the oil companies will still sell to the highest bidder not just to Americans. BTW the oil they do get out of the ground here, a lot of it comes from public owned land but the public stills has to pay well for it while the oil companies pay little land rent if any. I have always been a believer in oil being publicly owned as it is too important to our national security to trust into private hands. That's part of the reason we are in the mess we are in.

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JoeBob/IN

03-20-2008 09:17:37




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
For those who haven't figured it out by now the price for anything and everything that gets its price based from the commodities market has nothing to do with actual supply and demand. Rather speculation as to what is going to happen. The prices are all based on some dipstick buying and selling pieces of paper according to what he read in some article some other dipstick wrote who heard that there was suspected bad weather getting ready to hit (enter city) and that would cause a shortage of (enter commodity). Or just the opposite and good weather would produce an excess of (enter commodity) and prices would plummit. Yada yada yada.

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dhermesc

03-20-2008 09:28:03




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to JoeBob/IN, 03-20-2008 09:17:37  
"The prices are all based on some dipstick buying and selling pieces of paper according to what he read in some article some other dipstick wrote"

Probably read this one:Link

less>Link cars on the road - less fuel burned.



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Dandy Don

03-20-2008 11:32:37




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to dhermesc, 03-20-2008 09:28:03  
Yes, I just saw on the news this morning that the local Nissan plant is changing from 5 eight hour days to 4 Nine hour days. Doesn't sound like much but at a little over $20.00 an hour (non union) that's a $320.00 a month hit for workers. But one less day of driving to and from work. Sounds very well thought out to me if cut backs had to be made. Most US companys might not have thought about the workers in such a way. As the Britts say 'Keep a stiff upper lip' things will work out if you just have faith. To me doesn't matter who is elected, it's how the people handle the situation.

Don

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ridiculous I know

03-20-2008 08:58:40




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 Re: OT/Oil Refineries At 83% Capacity-Crude Prices Down in reply to Cant Understand It, 03-20-2008 08:47:12  
Yep. Feds continuous interest rate cuts have repeatedly weakened the dollar value. Wall Street controls so much of the markets that even though demand is down, prices are still being controlled by them. Supply and demand has not been a factor in a long time as far as fuel prices. Just look at how it spikes and drops every week or two, supply demand doesnt play like that. It is speculation. Oil is not bought and traded on the market anyhow, it is bid on by the oil companies and sold directly by them, but the traders who play the prices do help determine prices. The whole system is broken.

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