If the rails or forks were out of alignment, the tractor would not move PERIOD.
Have you tried it? What does it feel like?
The Lo-Boy 154 has the same basic transmission as a Farmall Cub, so the shifter cover comes off with 8 or 10 bolts, and you can see right down inside. The hardest part is getting the sheet metal off to get at it on a 154.
I doubt it needs a whole transmission, but without knowing more about what the tractor is/isn't doing when you try to shift into 2nd or 3rd, the best anyone can do is tell you to take it apart, see what's wrong, and fix it.
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Today's Featured Article - Identifying Tractor Noises - by Curtis Von Fange. Listening To Your Tractor : Part 3 - In this series we are continuing to learn the fine art of listening to our tractor in hopes of keeping it running longer. One particularly important facet is to hear and identify the particular noises that our
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