Posted by jackinok on July 05, 2011 at 07:05:54 from (162.58.82.136):
In Reply to: Beef Prices this fall posted by Keith Molden on July 04, 2011 at 04:41:13:
heres the way I see it,(1) not the best time to buy simply because cattle are so high(2)feed prices ,unless you have a large excess of pasture,are high also so you might in all reality get stuck haveing more in them than you can get out if you feed much(3)record high cattle prices means lots more heifers are going to market,and older cows also(4)hay prices because of the drought in a lot of the southwest and flooding elsewhere are going to go up, and your grass may make more money that way instead of trying to turn it into beef(5) IF you have a abundance of pasture,I personally believe the market is going to be for replacement heifers.due again to so many ranchers cashing in on the higher prices,drought and folks not having water to hold them,and flooding else where forcing guys to sell cattle they would normally hold as breeders.(6)if I was buying now,and had the grass and water available,I would stock up on heifers and hold them for a year or maybe two and sell them as replacements.big ranches are selling at a large rate cashing in on the current market,small guys are being forced to sell,and cattle numbers overall are way down.so if i were betting on the future thats where I would try to be sitting next spring or fall. shortage of beef overall "should" hold market high,but sooner or later folks are going to be needing to replace cows theyve culled.big guys around me are already starting to hold heifers back,they've sold already all their older cull cows,and feedlots are buying younger and younger stock,to supply future demand and feeding them longer.if i had the land sitting idle,i think I would be sitting with a herd of good two year old heifers ready to go when folks start hunting replacements.i would try to utilize my excess grass by holding them at a low enough stocking rate that i could keep them year round or nearly so with little supplemental feed and just sit on them for a while.my opinion of course..
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