I live on the side the coop has been moving away from for many years now. I'm pretty positive & upbeat compared to other's opinions I've heard. ;) Couple years ago I kept being asked what the heck that coop is doing? Now you mention the name & they just grin, don't ask questions any more.
I won't see any better grain prices, I'm too far away from Brownton. If the terminal boosts prices a few cents, the LLC will take that away in transport costs from me to the terimal....
I'll see 1/2 of the normal dividend check - ADM gets the other half. It's possible grain prices will go up a bit and the overall dividend will go up a tad, but it won't double!
Everything will look rosey for 5-7 years. Then someone will make a mistake - like the fertilizer plant when they filled it & the price of fertilizer dropped. Somehow, because a private enterprize is now involved, we won't see the books on the cloudy period - that can be hidden away. We won't really know anything that is going on in the books there.
Then, well things went bad, since ADM had to kick in some assets to shore things up, the coop had to kick in too.
Then if things still go bad..... ADM owns the coop for 60 cents on the dollar, and I have fond memories.
I hope I'm all wet on this, and I'm in good health cashing my coop retirement checks when I'm 75-80 years old! :)
As a farmer we are the catch-all of any sort of financial mess. As MF Global shows when things are good, it's all good, but when the wheels fall off, the bad checks and empty accounts are held by us low people on the totem pole.
So, it's hard enough to keep my small farm business afloat & sound, and deal with a coop or a private business and enter into good sound transactions that I am slightly in control of.
Now with this deal, I sign a contract & I'm involved with a coop, an LLC, and a giant private business.
If anything goes wrong with any of those 3, I'm in the hole.
I don't really care for that. We are in roller coaster markets with MF Global sharks all around, now I'm supposed to be the little pebble between an agribusiness giant and a pretty big coop.
On paper it looks good. I was mildly for the terminal when I first heard of it. I'm for progress, and farming is changing, coops gotta keep up. The coop needs to keep building.
Was very very surprised when they stopped being a coop tho! And you can sugar coat it all you want, the grain business is no longer a farmer owned coop.
This confused, co-mingled coop/private business is not so much for the little guy in the deal. Way lot of risk for the farmer. A whole lot. I give it 10 years.
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