JD and Paul I agree with most of what both of you said.
I believe high grain prices and the CRP both helped the cattle guys.
When CRP came out cattle herds were sold to enroll the rotational hay and pasture Land into the CRP. Cattle numbers went down beef prices went up.
3 to 4 years ago when grain went up, more cattle herds were sold when guys like me grew all corn and beans and stopped rotating into hay and pasture.
I have very little HEL but had 200 acres of hay and pasture to support the 80hd cow herd I had. The cows were sold early 2010.I said then cattle will go up cause numbers will go down. Cattle would be higher now if the producers would not take the cattle to higher weights then they did 5 years ago.
Biggest problem we have, just as JD said, is the government meddling in AG.
A lot of the people that got the biggest government payments live in the cities and never farmed. They bought it as an investment because of the extra return on investment doled out from the government.
This took the land ownership away from a lot of young farmers by keeping the land prices high enough the young could not afford it.
The interest rates of the 80's is what did a lot of us 50 year olds in. That is when the big down turn in farmer numbers started. When the land prices started to get down to where farmers could afford it the investers were buying and land went up again.
Will they drop farm payments? Should they?
I feel they should keep a price support system in place in case we ever need it but the direct payments should end.
Will the government allow this to happen?
I lot of people will loose there jobs if the payments end. The government will also loose the control on conservation if the payments end.
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