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Re: Who's the bad guys?


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Posted by MarkB_MI on August 17, 2013 at 04:12:08 from (75.219.62.74):

In Reply to: Who's the bad guys? posted by 37Chief on August 16, 2013 at 20:15:19:

I lived and worked in Egypt for half a year back in the early nineties, so I have a little insight on this. Anyone who has spent much time in the country will tell you that the current situation was pretty much inevitable. Even twenty years ago, I had a good idea that things would eventually come to a head.

First off, Egypt has been under military control of some sort most of its existence. Going back a few hundred years, you had the Mameluks, then the Ottomans, interrupted briefly by Napoleon. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Egypt was occupied by the Brits, who supported the Egyptian monarchy until King Farouk was overthrown in a military coup in 1952. Until the recent election of Morsi, every president (Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak) was an officer who had participated in the 1952 coup. When I was there, the influence of the military was everywhere. All major companies in the country were run by retired generals. No foreign company could do business in the country without help from a general. Mubarak was president, but the generals ran the country.

After the military, muslim fundamentalists were a major factor in the country. The government/military tried to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood, who assassinated, among others, President Anwar Sadat. But the government also exploited unrest among the fundamentalists to detract from its own problems. Israel and the west were a convenient scapegoat for Egypt's problems.

The third factor leading up the revolution was population growth. The population, now at 80 million, has been doubling about every thirty years. Most of population growth has not been among the educated middle class, but rather among the poor, who move to Cairo where they subsist in slums. For example, there are a million people living in an ancient Cairo cemetery known as the City of the Dead. These slums are a breeding ground for fundamentalists. During my stay, about once a month there would be an assassination by fundamentalists on some government official. The government response would be to go into the slums and arrest a dozen fundamentalists, who would be tried in military court and executed a few days later. This of course just created more radicals eager to avenge the deaths of their relatives.

Added to mix is the sizable Christian minority in Egypt, who are likely to suffer if the country is controlled by muslim fundamentalists.

Population growth made the clash between fundamentalists and military inevitable. You ask "who are the bad guys?" I'm afraid it's not that simple. The only muslim country to have a more-or-less stable democracy has been Turkey, but only because the military has stepped in every time fundamentalists started to take over. I think the Egyptian military sees itself in the same role, wanting to preserve the emerging democracy and to protect the Christian minority. But its brutal behavior cannot be excused. The fundamentalists can't be excused, either; as I see it they have been goading the military, knowing that its response will gain sympathy for their cause. And there is little doubt that if the Muslim Brotherhood takes control of Egypt, it will turn it into an islamic state.

The losers in this are the Egyptian people, who are friendly, hospitable and fun-loving. I think most supported the overthrow of Mubarak, but do not want to see an islamic state in Egypt.


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