We just got over an inch of needed rain. Our crops still look great here in North-East Iowa. I have talked to guys all over the nation. The worse crops are in the very Eastern corn belt and the upper Midwest. If you thought the crops in IL where not good than that is different than what the fellows I know over there are saying.
As far as the USDA estimate. I think they will be closer than many think they are. There are many areas that have excellent crops and a few with bad crops. So the excellent crops can easily make up for the few bad acres around.
I know guys will say I drove here and there an saw field after field that was not planted or late planted. The fact is nation wide there is a pretty good crop growing. The early harvest numbers I am hearing from the southern states are up 10-20% over normal.
GUYS you are just going to have to face the fact that the high price cycle is swinging the other way. There was not a good basis for the high grain prices. It was a short term thing. The world wide supply was down for a few years. The high prices are taking care of that shortage.
The last few years of high prices have caused problems that will last for many years. One of those things is guys will try and use the few years of high prices to make future marketing decision.
The $10 soybeans did the same thing in the early 1980s. I saw guys drop BIG money because they where holding out for those high prices again. It took 30 years for them to get that high again.
Also it will take years for the production costs to come down to match the prices we will be getting. I do not see much profit in cash grain for the next few years.
Plus the fellows that bought $10-14K per acre ground had better have 2 or 3 acres paid for to make the payments on that high priced ground.
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