TF, I'm not sure what you mean by "guys like you". If you mean "guys whose predictions often turn out to be correct", then I'll accept the compliment.
I will tell you what I've said about ammo in the past. Most of those threads have been poofed, so you'll have to take my word on it.
Ammo shortages first hit centerfire cartridges about six years ago. At the time, I said the shortage was a combination of high demand and limited capacity. Ammo plants were operating at full capacity at the time to meet military and civilian demand, and this was causing shortages of components, particularly primers. I said the shortage would eventually pass, and for the most part it has. Prices remain high, but you can get ammo for most popular calibers. The shortage never really affected me because I don't buy commercial ammo and I have enough reloading supplies on hand to last me many years.
As for the .22 rimfire shortage, I've said and continue to say it is caused by hoarding, and that supply will eventually catch up with demand. IMO, the rimfire shortage is fallout from the centerfire shortage: When hoarders couldn't get centerfire ammo at any price, they turned to rimfire ammo which was cheaper and easier to resell. The ad referenced in the original post supports my theory; it looks like this guy wants to take his profits before the bottom falls out of the market. FWIW, I don't own any rimfire guns so I really don't care much about the rimfire shortage one way or another. But if the shortage is still around this time next year, I'll freely admit I was wrong.
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