Posted by Paul on April 29, 2014 at 10:04:43 from (66.60.223.232):
In Reply to: Re: Corn future GMO? posted by oldtanker on April 29, 2014 at 08:56:40:
China can't control their own food supply. That worries them and rightly so. Hungry folk don't behave well.....
We fiddled with our grain shipments in the Nixon and Carter administrations, and that woke up China and other countries, that the USA can not be trusted as a food supplier.
South America has such ingrained political problems that they are just a mess to try to get grain from; while they might pass us in soybean exports this year they still are just dang unreliable, their transportation can't keep up, they have no storage to speak of, and their governments keep taxing and messing with producers and shippers to the point efficiency fails.
I believe China is looking to Africa now to expand agriculture, and find enough different sources of grain to ease and concern of being held a food hostage by USA or SA for political or economic goals.
And you know, I don't blame them.
So to your question.....
I believe we have a lot of hungry mouths to feed across the globe, and many of them are getting better lives and want better (protein) foods and more of them.
So we are in a rising time for agriculture, if China buys from others, or expands agriculture in Africa, we still have many places to export to and eager buyers. They will lose out to China and be coming our way.
Bumps in the road like China's anti-gmo games or a few years ago when they would ship soybeans out of northern ports, float them for a while, and then have magical imports of beans to report are all part of the game to ebb and flow grain prices.
It will work briefly and we will lose a little and China will gain a little, but there are x number of mouths to feed across the world, and x number of acres harvested across the world, China can't change that. It will balance out year to year. we are lucky that SA has expanded its agriculture as it has in the past 40 years. We don't produce enough grain in the USA to feed the world!
I think likewise in 20 years, if Africa and Ukraine get their acts together and become bigger food exporters I think that will be needed by the world, not a negative to us. I think Ukraine is a scary place to rely upon for food right now, they looked so promising just a couple years ago - they are so close to Europe and Strong Middle East countries they could export and transport far cheaper than us to those locations....
But short term yes these deals will cost us, and needs to be considered as we market our grain. It could cost us 25 cents a bu average, with deeper swings at certain times as markets react to certain announcements.
It is a real concern.
Long term, it is just all part of the grain import/ export game. More mouths around the globe, there will be more people looking to import.
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