Well, you're close. What's the real reason? Market demand. If the market wanted a car with a full-size spare, manufacturers would figure a way to deliver it, even if it meant mounting the spare over the rear bumper, MG-style. Market demand also explains why air-conditioning replaced vent windows and cup holders have replaced ash trays. The ubiquity of cell phones is just one part of market demand.
Understand that women buy roughly half of all new cars. For small passenger vehicles, it's probably 60 percent or more. Most women won't change a flat tire, although they might be willing to use a can of Fix-a-Flat. Also, the market demographic for small cars is mostly urban, and urban drivers are less likely to change a flat than rural drivers. It's a matter of safety and convenience: why risk getting robbed or run over while changing a flat tire when you can drive a couple of blocks to a garage or tire store?
Meanwhile, EPA CAFE standards continue to increase, and the easiest way to improve a vehicle's economy is to take out mass. Although the spare tire might not weigh that much, it takes up space which requires the car to be bigger.
I think the future will be run-flat tires. Some models have them today, and with tire monitoring systems they make a lot of sense: Changing a tire is no longer an emergency but rather a service issue that can be deferred for a day or two until the car can be brought in for service.
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Today's Featured Article - Restoration Story: Fordson Major - by Anthony West. George bought his Fordson Major from a an implement sale about 18 years ago for £200.00 (UK). There is no known history regarding its origins or what service it had done, but the following work was undertaken alone to bring it up to show standard. From the engine number, it was found that this Major was produced late 1946. It was almost complete but had various parts that would definitely need replacing.
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