Posted by MarkB_MI on June 23, 2015 at 19:51:55 from (70.194.30.91):
In Reply to: renewable energy posted by Geo-TH,In on June 23, 2015 at 15:58:50:
In the late 1970s, personal computers were little more than expensive toys. There was no internet, no cell phones and data was transmitted over voice lines at 300 baud. For most people, the idea that only 40 years later average people would carry a device with greater processing power than a seventies mainframe was inconceivable. It was preposterous to think that such devices around the world would be seamlessly connected so someone in Mongolia could communicate with someone in the Amazon jungle as easily as you could talk to your next door neighbor. Yet here we are. No one accurately predicted how things would be in the twenty-first century, but those who had their ears to the rail could tell that technology would be a huge game changer.
So why, then, is it so unlikely that we'll see such a dramatic change with renewable energy? The assertions in the article aren't so much predictions as observations about what is happening today and extrapolations about where current trends are heading. Computers became ubiquitous when computer processing power became dirt cheap and very small. Meanwhile, the more ubiquitous computers became, the greater the demand for them. The result of these two trends led to an exponential growth in computer technology.
I don't think renewable energy is much different: the technology is getting cheaper every day, and there is an increasing demand to get off fossil fuels and reduce energy consumption. Don't assume the slow growth in renewable energy over the past fifty years is indicative of where it will go in the next twenty. In 1979 we still typed out our programs on Hollerith punch cards, technology that predated digital computers. Yet only twenty-five years later the internet exploded.
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