The current slump reflects reduced demand for beef due to a sluggish economy and lower priced pork, chicken etc. It makes no sense to me when you say you try to put a "floor" under your cattle with forward contracting, you are still at the mercy of the markets with a basis contract and when prices are falling you can actually wind up losing more than you would have without a contract, especially with the spreads between feeder cattle prices and fed cattle prices we are seeing these days. No packer is going to lock in any forward prices off basis except maybe on some branded pens of cattle or organic/ hormone free etc. and those are few and far between. It makes much more sense to be flexible in your operation and feed the class of animal that will return a profit, heifers are much cheaper right now and will be even cheaper in December and January, anyone with feed and hay will make money next year selling replacements if bought right this winter, the cow herd is still in the expansion mode.
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