One of the problems in farming is a lot of folks don't look at it as a business, they do things because they've always done it that way or because Dad or Grandpa always did. That'd not intended to be a slam on Dad or Grandpa but things change and markets have cycles. Two words of wisdom I've been exposed to over the years. 1 in the basic animal husbandry class a Michigan State University we were asked to judge or rank a group of steers, we did so. The Phd who taught the class for some reason was at the lab (labs were usually taught by the Grad students-period). After we were done and discussed the results the Dr. asked "which of these steers will be worth more at the sale barn?" Of course we replied the #3 steer (who was ranked #1), he replied nope the heaviest of the bunch will bring the most money. 2- There was and individual that worked down in Texas for a good portion of the 1900's, he traded cattle in horses from the mid 1920's through the early 1970's. He wrote a few books on his escapades in dealing in stock as well as providing veterinary services to ranches (some say he was a DVM but no one can find any record of him ever attending school or ever being licensed), in one of his books he was trying to explain why horse trading was more profitable than cattle trading. He said that it's to easy for cattle buyers to make a liar out of you, all they have to do to figure out what they're worth is to put 'em on a scale.
Most folks on this board understand the nature of commodity cycles, prices wax and wane. Prices go up, everyone jumps in (buying stock, land, equipment and feed at higher prices) with the increased supply prices fall so people get out (selling stock, land equipment and feed at lower or almost distressed prices). For my $.02 there's two ways to make money on markets like this, go counter cyclical (sell out when prices are high, buy in when prices are low). The other is to stay level, do the same year in and year out and hope on average make money. This means you don't ramp up or down unless you're trying to go counter cyclical.
That being said if any one wants to look at my 401K history it's pretty obvious I'm still trying to get the knack of the counter cyclical stuff.
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