Guys, how many times do we have to go over this? OK, once more: Commodity prices are set by SPECULATION. That's a fancy word for "guessing". They are guessing what future demand might be.
Now maybe they guess right or maybe they guess wrong. The point is you cannot tie a decline in commodity prices to a actual direction in the economy.
Commodity prices only indicate future direction if they end up being right. But we'll only know about that when the future gets here.
SS55 is exactly right. Look at the 10 year or 20 year charts. Down markets are not a crash, often they are a return to normal or average prices.
Here's the real story in brief:
Chinese demand pulled way back this summer after a terrible July and August in their stock market and confusion over their government's lack of policy direction regarding a host of issues.
The China slump hit the chicken littles on Wall Street the same time as other US data and the big selloff was on. The commodity guys also hit the panic button based on record crop harvests and indications of surplus inventories. That drove everything from hog bellies to beef to fish gut prices lower on the futures.
The the Chinese govt got their sh!t together and calmed the market panic. US unemployment hit a 10 year low of 5.0x%. US commodity prices including beef are on the decline because inputs are on the decline, it has gotten really cheap to feed those cattle with sub $4 a bushel corn, and cheap oil to run tractors on, why should cattle prices defy gravity?
Outlook for next year? More of same, a mixed bag. Low oil prices are bad for the oil biz and fantastic for everyone else. Cattle prices will continue to a slow decline, finding bottom in summer and then will hold pending crop forecasts. Row crop prices will increase slightly as marginal ground put back into production during the boom is slowly pulled back.
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