Posted by JD Seller on November 22, 2015 at 07:32:05 from (208.126.198.123):
In Reply to: Fertilizer Trends. posted by IaGary on November 22, 2015 at 05:01:07:
I am involved on the retail side of fertilizer business. You will not see a big drop in fertilizer cost this year. The reason??? The fertilizer you use is already bought and under contract. So the fertilizer for next year is already in the pipe line so to speak. So the local price will not change much.
A large part of the fertilizer in the mid west is imported. Most of the potash these last few years has came out of Western Europe. So it is already mined and in transit to here. The price is already determined before it is loaded. If the price is not what they can live with then they do not ship it period. There is NO spot market on this fertilizer.
The only fertilizer you MIGHT see any movement on is liquid nitrogen and Anhydrous. These two products are still most produced here in the US. They are also usually produced closer to the actually application time than the dry products. So they can still react to lower energy prices and demand.
As to what we are seeing on demand??? There are many more soil samples but the larger farmers are applying just about what they normally do. If they do not have a good yield they have zero hope of making the whole thing work.
You MIGHT be able to cut your rates if your soils is truly built up but that is a year or two at the most before you adversely effect your yields more than you save. As for the fellow in Ohio that is saying he does not apply fertilizer. HE is selling a line of BS. If you can live with 70-80 bushel corn and 20-25 bushel beans than try what he is doing. He has been jumping around on rented ground and mining the fertility out an moving on. There are enough dumb/absentee landlords that he can do this.
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