I went through this last summer with 14 year old air to air heat pump. The repairman told me i beat the average life span for of 12 years for such a system. It was likely a leak in the inside coil, but after adding enough freon + nitrogen to pressurize the system and detect the leak, and then flush the system just the cost to diagnose was prohibitive. Then it was unlikely that they could get a coil to fit my air handler so the whole would probably have to be replaced. So close to $4500 for a new coil with 14 year outside unit or $8500 for a new 14 SEER system. Replacement was a no brainer.
I got many quotes form all the different manufacturers and settled on spending the extra money for geothermal. I second the recommendation of crunchy all your numbers as far as electric costs. For NE Kansas, the extra money for the 16 SEER unit never would have paid back. Your home sounds to be more energy efficient than mine, so I doubt it would pay off for you.
Good luck! Replacing an HVAC system is one of the downsides of home ownership, especially in August.
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Today's Featured Article - Old Time Threshing - by Anthony West. A lovely harvest evening late September 1947, I was a school boy, like all school boys I loved harvest time. The golden corn ripens well and early, the stoking, stacking,.... the drawing in with the tractors and trailers and a few buck rakes thrown in, and possibly a heavy horse. It would be a great day for the collies and the terrier dogs, rats and mice would be at the bottom of the stacks so the dogs, would have a busy time hunting and killing, all the corn was gathered and ricked in what we c
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