Posted by JD Seller on September 02, 2017 at 10:39:31 from (208.126.196.24):
A good friend has a 24 year old son coming into the operation after college. The boy is a good young man but like most young men only sees rosy skies with no clouds. Anyway, my friend calls me to see if I would make him a bumper bar for the back of his latest purchase. It is a new JD 8600 self propelled forage harvester. They got a 20 foot folding Kemper header and a ten foot hay head. The cost is right at $600K. WOW Add in the six forage wagons they bought and your right at $750K.
Now the rest of the story. They do not have a single head of livestock. Neither one has even ran a forage harvester before. The son worked for a custom harvesting crew driving a truck while in college. They just took delivery this week. I asked him how many jobs they have lined up. Five, about 250 acres worth is all so far. He seems unconcerned about the amount of work they need to just cover the interest and deprecation.
We will be chopping in just a few weeks. I know of very few that would not already have someone committed to doing their harvesting. So I see real limited expansion room for this year.
With grain prices nearing the lower prices of 7-8 years ago and milk is hovering at the $15 range with limited production quotas. I do not see how they are going to make this all work. I really wonder if "new ironitis" hit the son and the Father is going along. A move like this could easily break the entire operation if we continue to have lower prices, which looks likely at the moment.
I know we have gone the other way. We have some things that w would have updated in better times but are just going to rebuild/repair for now. Nothing new or even "new" used for us right now unless it is to sell.
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