Posted by paul on March 19, 2018 at 21:37:36 from (66.60.223.229):
In Reply to: Re: Farm Problem posted by VADAVE on March 19, 2018 at 17:47:48:
3-4 years ago on this very forum folks were losing their minds because corn was $7, farmers were evil people for trying to profit from people needing to eat. The Bakers Association was testifying to the govt that farmers making a profit was a sin against all humanity, the cost of flour was going to have dead bodies stacking up because farmers were going to starve people to death.
There is no winning that game, Dave.
As bad as it is now, supply management by govt is an even worse plan. It has been tried through history, and while it seems wonderful for a short time, it will implode terribly.
We have had 4 near record harvests in a row. We, and grain buyers around the globe, are starting to expect that as normal.
Maybe it is.
Maybe 1/4 of gr worlds growing areas will have some bad weather for a change, and we will decrease corn production 5bu an acre.
That would use up a large part of our surpluses.
The world is producing more grain every year. But it is also using more grain every year as well.
China is building ethanol plants. They begrudgingly want to clean up their air some, and they want the higher protein feed an ethanol puts out. They currently grow enough corn. Predictions are in 3 years they will use up their excess corn, and start importing more and more. They already are pretty much the one big only soybean importer, from all around the globe.
Grains will flex up and down in price, as we grow less or more grains, and as people demand grain. They demand more or less grain, as their income allows them to buy costlyier foods.
It seems complicated, but it a self leveling system, and it works well. It got a little messed up in 2010 or so, as a whole bunch of things happened at the same time. Many parts of the world had poor weather 2 years in a row. china was having really good economic times, and their population was expanding its food consumption rapidly. USA was in a poor economy, making out exports seem quite cheap.
All together, in made for a very rapid and crazy grain supply spike, we didn't make much grain, parts of the world were able and willing to pay a lot extra for more grain, and world stocks got pulled down rapidly.
Grain prices in the USA skyrocketed. But the system we have worked, no one saw bare shelves in the stores, no one went hungry, no one in the USA really noticed.
Perhaps that is the problem here. We have done such a good job of creating a good, safe, plentiful food supply system, folks don't realize how bad those couple years were...... and how devistating those poor crop years -should- have been.
People don't ever look very far, or care very much, with full bellies.
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