Your hp-hour numbers are really hp-hrs/gal. Big difference. The hp-hrs/gal figure will give the amount of work that can be done with a gallon of fuel. The 4020 and 4040 clearly are more efficient when used at their rated hp.
Using drawbar pull and ground speed and the resultant hp-hrs/gal numbers for a model D, 4020, 4040 is a better but not perfect comparison. The best would be a hp-hrs/gal measurement for your soil type pulling the largest plow each tractor could pull. The Nebraska test does not compare every possible soil type and plow size so the hp-hrs/gal for differing power outputs was used instead. However, you still need to compare apples to apples.
For a 3641 lbs pull a D will move around 3.9 mph, 9.8 hp-hrs/gallon, use 3.8 gallons/hr. Roughly 1 mile traveled will use 1 gallon of fuel for that drawbar pull.
A 4020 with a pull of 3867 lbs, speed 8.23 mph, 6th gear, roughly 14.6 hp-hrs/gal , and roughly 6 gal/hr. Roughly 1.4 miles traveled for each gallon for that drawbar pull.
A 4040 with a pull of 4160 lbs, more than the D, 9th gear, 7 mph, 11.2 hp-hrs/gal roughly, 6.6 gal/hr roughly. Around 1 mile for each gallon at that drawbar pull.
Looking at it like that, with a low drawbar pull, looks like the D is comparable to the larger diesel tractors. The confounding factor is that neither the 4020 nor the 4040 are in their efficient range when pulling only around 3800 pounds on the drawbar. That is nothing for the 4020 or 4040 to pull. The will be only slightly over 50% of their power. The D is near the height of its efficiency.
If you plan on pulling the same plow with the 4020 or 4040 as the D would pull then there is not much of a fuel cost savings. The real advantages come when using a much larger tractor as a larger tractor not as a large tractor doing the same work as a much smaller tractor. What size plow would be near full power for a 4020 or 4040? I have no idea since it depends on many factors. However, comparing fuel efficiency with the largest plow each can pull for your soil type is the best way if you only want to compare fuel used per acre plowed. There are other considerations such as purchase cost, reliability, maintenance costs, and so on but just based on fuel used per maximum plowed acre, I would be surprised if the D was competitive to a more modern larger diesel tractor.
The numbers I used were approximations since the drawbar pull, etc.. listed for each tractor model may not be exactly the same as another model.
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