I can tell you for a fact they have no idea what the price of gas will be at the time of a shut down. Shut downs are planed months or even years in advance.
Take for instance a crane rental place I worked for in the past. They wanted to buy a large 1000+ ton crane to use in refinery repair work. The bank insisted they have a years worth of work lined up for this crane before they would lend them the money.
Gasoline is usually at its lowest price in the winter because demand is lower. So naturally they shut down refineries in the winter when demand is low. It just coincides with lower prices; again because demand is lower in the winter. These low gasoline prices this time of the year when they are producing higher priced summer gas and demand is higher because of vacation is unusual. Mostly because crude is at a low price due to the fact we no longer really need middle east crude. Think fracking.
But yes speculators will grab short term profits off of fear news. I suspect even you and other farmers do the same thing with grain futures.
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