Re: Fallout from Derecho

Posted by paul on August 13, 2020 at 18:42:39 from (76.77.197.114):

In Reply to: Fallout from Derecho posted by Shaler on August 13, 2020 at 16:29:34:

An area 10 million acres was affected.

Perhaps 1/3 of that was badly affected, perhaps 1/3 of that was a very minor issue.

We farmers do pretty good rescuing a crop, so the better 2/3 of that will be harvested fairly normal.

So maybe 1/6 of 10 million acres of corn is in bad shape there, and 1/6 as beans are pretty badly roughed up.

Unfortunately the world is awash in grains, there are no shortages or threats of shortage anywhere.

Brazil and South America are having great weather and second crops. They are expanding land to farm so will have more next year.

USA and world stocks report came out yesterday, and basically said everything the same, we will have more grain sitting around this winter than we did last winter.

So there is zero interest in raising grain prices! We have plenty.

However, today grains went up some for a change. A few other countries started buying some, putting in orders.

We think that’s a short term bump.

Now, the Iowa disaster does lower the amount of grain we will produce. Some say maybe a national average will go down 3 bushels an acre. But, we were looking at a record crop, so that doesn’t even drop us down much nationally.

Another issue that could develop is how bad the floods in China affected their crops? As a closed govt society over there, we really don’t know. Anything we hear is pretty much just rumor. If it turns out China needs to buy corn to make up for a disaster over there, that would heat up markets in a hurry. Typically China grows its own corn, and buys soybeans. If they needed to get into buying corn in a big way, that would get attention!

But as of today, we are growing more corn than we need. Even with the Iowa disaster, we still are going above and beyond.

So any price jumps are expected to be small and short lived as far as we can guess. Even if we sell a bunch extra, we should have plenty. Corn, beans, and wheat. The world is flush with grains.

I sure feel for those in Iowa affected. What terrible timing. A little earlier and the corn would somewhat right itself. A month later and it would be close to mature. Right now, the stalks are too hard they broke, didn’t bend so it will not stand up again. The grain isn’t mature at all, it will want to rot and mold in the husks as some of it tries to mature. It will be a very ugly mess. Trying to pick it up with the combine will wreck a lot of iron, to harvest a terrible crop.

Couldn’t palm it out any worse timing really for that 1/6 of the crop affected, I feel bad for those folk.

Paul

Replies:

• Re: Fallout from Derecho 730virgil 20:50:01 08/14/20 (0)

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