Posted by JimS on August 08, 2021 at 09:17:54 from (73.162.231.210):
First, let me say that I am employed by a Cal Fire contract dozer operator. That means we are contracted by a fire agency to run dozers on fires. In addition, I have my FF2 and I do a number of prescribed burns every year. I have also attended a number of classes on fire behavior.
My take on this is we have an extreme fuel load. We have been suppressing just about every fire that has come along in the past 100 years or more resulting in most everything being overgrown. These landscapes have evolved to not only withstand moderate fire but actually need it to periodically regenerate. We have taken that away through suppression and lack of prescribed burning. Native inhabitants used to burn fair sized areas for a number of reasons. When settlers first came to CA (Crazy America) they noted that the skies were always smoky (They also noted the central valley was always muddy.). There was always something burning.
It should also be noted that much of the area affected in CA is of a Mediterranean climate and some high desert. It is arid with relatively little rainfall. There are forests throughout Greece, Lebanon, and other places that resemble CA.
Also, with regard to the forests, they are overgrown. AS farmers. most of us recognize that there is just so much carrying capacity for any section of land and that capacity is limited by soil conditions, nutrients, and moisture. Not thinning the forests or not letting them periodically burn in a moderate manner has resulted in far too many plants per any given area. This depletes water availability, which makes a droughty condition in the forest, which makes the trees susceptible to beetles (They excrete sap to drive them off naturally. Without moisture, they cannot excrete much sap.) and other insects, they become susceptible to fungus and blight, the forest degrades and becomes volatile fuel. Things are so bad with management that people are trying to stop the logging of burnt trees. Burnt trees can still burn as they are essentially charcoal.
Terrain drives these fires. Where I live, in Sonoma County, we have had fires in the same footprint in 2017, 1962, 1926, and 1871, that we are aware of. Fire burns where fire burns and when the weather and fuel bed are right it will burn here again, guaranteed. The difference is, the fire in 2017 burned the same area in about 6 hours that it took the 1964 fire 2 1/2 weeks to burn. Look at any pictures of the county from those two eras and you will see that the density, volume, and type of vegetation is far greater now than it has ever been.
As far as climate change and unprecedented fires and fire behavior; a fire burned in 1918 in Idaho that consumed three and a half million acres in three days. Now we think 3 million in the state in a year is a lot. The Peshtigo Fire in 1871 consumed a million and have acres in a day killing between 5K-15K people and creating a tornado strong enough to lift a locomotive. So called firenados are not new nor is extreme fire behavior. Sensationalist journalism IS relatively new. There is only one formula for burning anything and that formula does not change because of the size of a fire. What happens on your candlewick is exactly the same as what happens on thousands of acres of forest, the only difference is scale. I don't think climate change is driving it.
What we are dealing with is mismanagement. It is no different than the Dust Bowl, when high government demand for wheat and advice from government agents caused farmers to plow unprecedented acres to meet that demand. Mismanagement and poor advice jumped up and bit us (Yes, I over simplify but I'm not writing a thesis here.).
People often ask, why don't they throw more planes or resources at these fires. I think people simply do not understand the forces at work. It is akin to trying to extinguish a volcano. The Pestigo Fire I referenced burned an average of 17 foot ball fields a second, and that is an average meaning there were moments that it burned more than that a second and moments when it burned less than that. The Camp Fire in Paradise, CA at its peak was consuming around 10 football fields a second. There is nothing that we have that would have any impact on anything like that.
I have seen propane tanks 75 feet away from an outbuilding on fire cook off. I also saw a Rubbermaid shed 75 feet from burning brush melt. People really cannot comprehend the forces at work here, what zero humidity is like, or just or how hot things can get. The safety area (Where you can stand safely without deploying a shelter and are able to reach it in a minute or two.) for the Dixie Fire burning in trees, with a 200 flame height is 46 acres. I painted a corner of a barn white with a dry chemical extinguisher and the flame just erupted right through it. You could line up all the 747s in the world to make a retardant drop on some of these biggies with little effect. Add to that the logistics and cost of throwing everything in the world at a fire not to mention that there are several of these going on at one time and we begin to see what a tremendously monumental task is before us.
As far as living in rural areas versus cites; the neighborhoods in Santa Rosa that burned were about as citified as you can get. More people live in rural areas or far reaches of cities than before; anyone who has farmed a while can attest to that. Add to that overgrown fuel beds and you have a recipe for disaster.
With regard to prescribed burns; CA does little in this area. In recent years, CA has burned 10-20K acres a year through prescribed burning. Florida, which is a third of CA's size and lacks CA's terrain and climate, burns over a million acres a year via prescribed burning. CA is grossly mismanaged and has been for decades.
Just a few thoughts to clarify a thing or two. Sorry to run on.
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