Posted by kyhayman on January 22, 2008 at 08:58:14 from (205.188.117.74):
In Reply to: Re: WOW! posted by MSD on January 22, 2008 at 08:38:45:
For my take on it, right now is the time to watch in the short run. If the with inflationary pressures and the market in a mess I'd move to utility and health care stocks (quick) or municipal bonds. They are the most insulated against a decline.
Now if someone is feeling ambitious, selling short crude oil would be an option. While the strong inflationary pressures and falling dollar has been pumping up the price of oil. If the US leads a global recession, and that stands to reason we would since we are the largest economy and we also see a decline in oil consumption (part of a recession) we should see a decline petroleum markets. Sooner or later in a global economic meltdown the oil producing countries wont be able to protect their income with Euros. To keep their income stream up they will have to dump more oil on the market. To me, the safer bets are sell short July 2008 crude, the big money bets are to sell short winter and spring 2009 crude since that will be after the presidential election.
Its also time to think about bargain shopping. If the Dow gets below 10,000 which is where I think the floor is (about 9400) its the time to aggressively buy blue chip stocks.
There's just as much money to be made in a falling market as in a rising one. It just takes chucking conventional wisdom and not following the herd. Of course if there is a total failure of the global economy that may not be the case, but if there is it wont matter anyway since money wont matter. The last thing I would want to buy right now is the usual hedges against inflation of gold and land. These are already over bid.
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