I dont see any of the fuel price increase as being inflation driven. Just the opposite, the price of fuel is driving inflation. But, Im not willing to fall prey to the gloom and doom. All businesses have cycles, and all inestments have cycles. Right now, commodoties are "bubbling". This has happened before. In the 1970"s, commodoty prices went out of sight, land prices got away from economic value, and real estate got a bubble. There was the mix of inflation and economic stagnation. It took guts on the part of the fed to raise interest rates and a steep sharp recession to put an end to it. But, we had 20+ years of prosperity.
As to a tipping point, Im sure there is one but I dont see it. Reading in today"s paper I noticed two things. 1. people are buying funds that make money in a down economy like gangbusters. Only problem is normally these buying sprees happen two months after the fact when things are already turning. 2. Massey energy is opening a new coal mine every 17 days from now until the end of the year looking to increase output by 25 percent by 2010. I know Massey isnt the only energy company looking to capitalize on high prices. The tipping point I see is in commodoty prices. The backlash against ethanol, the large number of reinvestments in petroleum energy, and the current recession and declining consumption of energy should result in a tipping of the commodoty complex. Which will precipitate more doom and gloom on here as the ag commodoty complex collapses. But the economy will go on.
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