My personal take is the markets will pick up, particularly early. We should get an innaguration bounce (regardless of politics, markets dont like unknowns and the legislative and excutive branches are both filled with lame ducks) and we should get a normal February bounce.
The Dow usually starts to recover 6 months or so before the end of a recession. It appears we hit a hard floor at 8000. Since the first of December it seems that the market is trading with a floor of 8300-8400. Certain stocks are really trying hard to rally. Look at the companies that have solid financials and deal in durable goods. Cat was trading in the 30s, it was the first company to rally on the market rallies and the last to fall. Now, its holding in the 40's. Deere is the same way, on a 35 range.
I read on TDAmeritrade that the money on the sidelines, right now, in money markets and treasuries is equal to 75 percent of the TOTAL value of the Russell 500. We are looking at real, new, government spending on the order of 300-500 billion in the next fiscal year with a repeat the next. Thats hugely pro economic growth. I have serious concerns about what it will do long term with inflation but over the next 4 years Im expecting a strong breakout to begin sometime in mid 2009 with the discount rate at 6 percent by late 2011.
As to equipment prices, we have just come off one of the best years in agriculture, ever. Fuel prices are down, fertilizer, especially nitrogen is down and the commodity complex is trending up. Old iron is under pressure because its a hobby in most cases. New and good used iron will at best drop a token amount off last years highs to reflect lower steel and fuel costs but remember, there are shortages of new equipment. I read this a.m. that Kinze was going to make planters up through March for spring 2009 delivery.
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Today's Featured Article - Usin Your Implements: Bucket Loader - by Curtis Von Fange. Introduction: Dad was raised during the depression years of the thirties. As a kid he worked part time on a farm in Kansas doing many of the manual chores. Some of the more successful farmers of that day had a new time saving device called a tractor. It increased the farm productivity and, in general, made life easier because more work could be done with this 'mechanical beast'. My dad dreamed that some day he would have his own tractor with every implement he could get. When he rea
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