Posted by NY 986 on January 16, 2009 at 16:54:35 from (166.217.34.42):
In Reply to: Deflation? posted by Spook on January 16, 2009 at 14:08:56:
Pretty much going to see deflation. For me it would help make ag land more affordable. Unless my health fails, I should be in this business another 20 - 25 years. I can't currently compete with those who get money from inheritances, lawsuits, etc. to bid on land. Obviously, not good for those about to retire. Alot of countries accross the world will probably go back to historic purchasing levels meaning less consumption on beans and grains lowering commodity prices. What's unique about this downturn is certain suppliers have cartel type abilities to restrict output. We all know about OPEC, but the fertilizer dealer told me that the potassium and phosphorus suppliers have already gone to short term shutdowns to restrict supply. Nitrogen suppliers have gone from dozens (10 to 15 years ago) to under 10. Similar situation with seed companies. Gonna make for high cost to do business. Still lots of people living outside their means beyond the subprime crowd. Not good for people to finance vehicles for twice their expected lifetime (especially when they don't do the maintenance). Restricted credit might shock people back to sensible purchases. I'm not for harsh cutbacks by any means but it might make the country financially healthier in the long run.
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