Is the air pressure staying up where it belongs? No leaking down?
Check to see if the bars are parallel to the world and that the chain is not 'out of time' one side to the other.
If your sprokets are worn, you really have to keep the apron chain adjusted up snug. Are you adjusting the chain tension before each day's use?
If it is only happening when the bale is near full size, I'd be more prone to think you've got a bearing problem somewhere. Take the drive chain off and check that lower roller to make sure it spins okay and is not binding and/or growling.
Also, if that slip clutch is wobbled out, that in itself will cause the pins to shear.
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