WASHINGTON (DTN) -- A cut in the size of both the corn and soybean crops and continued strong ethanol demand for corn and export demand for soybeans resulted in cuts to estimates of the ending stocks of both crops in the latest USDA crop production and supply and demand reports early Tuesday.
The report may be called bullish for both corn and soybeans when trade resumes later this morning.
Corn yields are now forecast at 154.3 bushels per acre, with the crop expected to total 12.540 billion bushels. Ending stocks are now forecast at 827 million bushels, down from 902 m bu in the October report.
USDA cut its forecasts for soybean production to 3.375 billion bushels, down from 3.408 b bu in October, with yields of 43.9 bpa, down from 44.4 bpa a month ago. Ending stocks are now forecast at 185 million bushels, down from 265 m bu forecast a month ago.
USDA said estimated yields are decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt, with the biggest decline forecasted in Missouri, with cuts also noted in South Dakota and Nebraska.
Soybean production is down 1 percent from October but still at a record high. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in Kansas, Nebraska, New Jersey and South Dakota. Forecasted yields are at record highs in Illinois, Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin.
Supply and Demand Tables
In addition to cuts in ending stocks for corn and soybeans in the monthly U.S. supply and demand tables, USDA's World Ag Outlook Board also cut ending stocks for wheat.
For corn, USDA cut production 124 million bushels, and cut feed and residual 100 m bu and exports by 50 m bu, but raised corn for ethanol by 100 m bu, leaving 2010/11 ending stocks at 827 million bushels, the lowest since 1995/96. Present levels of ending stocks represent 6.2 percent of projected usage. In 1995/96, carryout dropped to 5 percent of estimated usage.
In the soybean balance sheet, the most notable change was in exports, which USDA raised by 50 million bushels to 1.570 billion bushels. That resulted in a cut in ending stocks of 80 million bushels.
In its wheat tables, USDA cut production by 18 million bushels, raised imports 10 m bu, resulting in a cut in ending stocks of about 5 m bu. Exports were left at 1.250 b bu.
World Estimates
USDA lowered its estimates for world wheat and corn ending stocks and left soybean ending stocks near unchanged.
In the corn tables, world corn production was cut 1.1 million metric tons, with the smaller U.S. crop partly offset by an increase in Chinese production of 2 MMT to 168 MMT.
Wheat world ending stocks are seen falling 2.2 million metric tons with the largest cuts 3.4 MMT in China and 1 MMT in Russia.
Revisions to Small Grains Summary
In addition to the monthly report, USDA's National Ag Statistics Service issued some small revisions to its annual small grains summary, initially reported September 30. The revisions came as USDA resurveyed producers in North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon because harvest was not complete when the first survey was conducted. Based on updated information, USDA said it made several changes to the estimates published in the Small Grains 2010 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the Sep. 21 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments as well.
Crop Production report link: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…
U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2010-11 Nov Avg High Low Oct 2009-10 Corn 12.540 12,545 12,685 12,228 12,664 13,110 Soybeans 3.375 3,426 3,483 3,350 3,408 3,359 Grain Sorghum 338 331 337 325 337 383
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2010-11 Nov Avg High Low Oct 2009-10 Corn 154.3 154.4 156.1 152.0 155.8 164.7 Soybeans 43.9 44.6 45.3 43.8 44.4 44.0
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