In my past research on buying newish tractors I found that new vs. old HP depends on the fuel delivery system. Meaning if the newer tractor has a electronically controlled commonrail fuel system than it is better than old. The engineers build in torque rise when needed and the motors are more economical on fuel because of the electronic management.
However, if the newer motor is still an old mechanically governed injection pump then it is very similar to older motors.
A 4040 with only 2400 hours (are you sure that the hours are correct?) sounds like a good deal to me. $8000 difference buys a great deal of repairs.
Which dealer are you better acquainted with or later on can you get better service from a JD dealer or NH?
Just from the info given I'd probably go with the 4040 and get a new air conditioner (if you live in warm climates) right away with the money difference and be good to go.
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