Re: Re: falling old equipment values

Posted by HMMM..... on August 07, 2005 at 01:00:46 from (69.29.197.113):

In Reply to: Re: falling old equipment values posted by Nebraska Cowman on April 13, 2004 at 10:47:40:

The real wildcard in food production is energy.

We 2% couldn't feed the other 98% without lots of relatively cheap oil.

Fuel for equipment, the energy required to produce the equipment itself from raw materials, fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, transportation, processing, packaging, it's all very oil-intensive all the way down the chain.

Now it'll probably be some time yet before oil runs so short it interferes with food production, there's a lot of recreational oil useage going on in the US, but there better be a replacement fuel in place when it does.Actually this dynamic may constrain the developing nations with lots of people to feed, like china/india/etc., leading to tensions and war before it leads to food shortages in the US. Biodiesel is a recycling technology, it's not a fuel source. When you look at the whole chain of energy inputs biodiesel is a net energy loser, with the possible exception of hemp seed. But that's a whole other can of worms, and still not enough to make a dent in the oil market, no matter how many acres are in programs. Gotta think in net terms.

There's ground that's good given enough energy inputs, and then there's good ground. There's a lot more of the former than the latter.

Could be we'll come up with something to replace oil before it becomes an issue, maybe not. There's a lot of debate going on over whether oil production is reaching a peak, Matt Simmons is a Bush administration energy secretary who says we'll have to start dealing with continually declining energy supplies from right around here on out, it all depends on who you believe about reserves, mostly whether or not you believe the Arabs.

What we do know is the only nations whose oil production isn't in decline are hostile to one degree or another, SA, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Indonesia, that's about it. US has been in decline for decades, north sea (britain) is now in decline, Russia is at maximum.

As long as we have enough energy, food production isn't going to be a problem.

I do agree it's a crying shame the small farms are dying out a bit more with each passing decade, the "economies of scale" may not work out as well as circumstances change, and the US may regret the loss of all those small farmers who know their ground and how to get the most from it with minimal inputs.

Food shartages though? I dunno. Seems like as long as there's sufficient seed stocks it'd take something pretty catastrophic, gardening isn't entirely a lost art, even among the suburban yuppies, and the rest would learn quick if their kids were hungry enough.

I'll take 15 of those solid running H's for $800 each, if you'll deliver.

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